(Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This claim is basically absurd. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Blaine County. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Jim Hoft. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Your email address will not be published. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Republican Gov. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Your email address will not be published. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Vance. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. I dont think you should take that away from me.. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. And its never going to come back.. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. I believe in a time cycle. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Theres significant variability among them, though. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Port Clinton, Ohio. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. I dont listen to the news. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. The counties are also mostly small and rural. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . This includes personalizing content and advertising. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . A lot of people think things are. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation.